Stage Five Race Analysis

January 9, 2007

By Ryan Arciero

Ok, so I didn’t go four for four on my predictions for this stage. Can’t win them all. If Mark didn’t have his mechanical issues I might have just been right on, but oh well. Schlesser winning today’s stage was a shock to me. It must have been somewhat of a rough stage but also Schlesser car does really well in the dunes.

As you all probably know Mark was having a great Stage 4 until close to the end when he ended up losing the rear differential. He was in the last section of dunes on his way to the finish line when it happened. To that point Mark was running a very fast and consistent pace. A pace that would of probably got him in the top three for the day. Mark ended up 12th on the stage finishing right behind his teammate Ari Vatanen who stayed with Mark until the finish line. He ended up losing some time as well with the failure. Mark now sits 10th overall and almost 42 minutes out of the lead.

Being down by a deficit of 42 minutes may sound like a lot of time, and it is, but remember this is a very long race and we aren’t even to the half way point yet. There are still a lot of miles to be completed and a lot of areas to make up that time. If Mark stays consistent and fast he can start to eat away at that overall time. Difficult but not impossible. In my opinion Mark needs to run as quick of a pace as possible from here until he has eaten away at as much of that time as he can. At this point he has nothing to lose and everything to gain. In that same breath he also still has to be very mindful of his equipment because another mechanical failure could spell complete disaster for any further chances at the overall.

Tomorrow’s stage, Stage 5 will take them from Quarzazate to Tan Tan. Overall with the Liaisons, they will be covering more mileage but tomorrows special will be a little less in distance then today’s. Mark is now going to have to start further back on the stage then he has so far in the rally, so dust and getting through traffic is going to play a major role. I don’t expect Mark to set a record pace tomorrow because he does have to be mindful of the rocks and dust and not get any punctures. What he has to do for tomorrows stage is get himself back up in the top five or six on the stage in order to get a better starting spot for Stage 6. If he can get himself back up in the top five he can then start the charge at eating away at the time gap to the leaders. I think tomorrow will be a big transition stage for Mark to make his comeback at the overall lead.

Now for those of you asking about the team orders that VW will eventually put into place, I don’t think it is quite there yet at least for Mark. What I mean by that is you have Ari Vatanen who is almost seven hours down and the one who will be the shurpa or water carrier for the rest of the team for now. Physically Ari has no chance at winning the rally at seven hours down so his job now is to support the rest of his teammates including Mark.

Ari will start tomorrow’s stage right in front of Mark. As soon as Ari starts the race he will pull over and wait for Mark to go by then tuck in behind and help out where he can for the remainder of the stage. Ari will be in a perfect position to help out Carlos and Ginel as well and it will give Mark a chance to pick up the pace and eat away at the time deficit so VW can continue to go after Mitsubishi. Keep your fingers crossed for Mark on this stage to get back up the standings, and believe me he will.

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