Stage Eight and Nine Race Analysis

January 14, 2007

by Ryan Arciero

One car at a time, that is what Mark is going to do in order to get himself back up to the top five overall. On today’s stage Mark finished in a very respectable fifth position, but remember, he was supposed to stay in contact with Ginel and Carlos. As we hear, Carlos had a power steering issue and at this point I am not sure if Mark had to stop and assist or if Carlos just kept motoring through to the finish, but needless to say Carlos lost quite a bit of time on today’s stage. This race can throw you a curve ball when you least expect. Because of that, the overall ranking got a shake up after the finish today.

Ginel was able to win today’s stage and also put some more time between him and the Mitsubishi’s, but the Mitsubishi team isn’t going anywhere. Now with Carlos down about an hour the Mitsubishi team has now squeezed into the second and third position overall. A little bit scary for VW because now Carlos has some catching up to do in order to get back to second. Mark is still going to have to support Carlos and Ginel and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mark pull over after the start of tomorrow’s stage to let Carlos go by so he can help both of them to the finish line.

With Mark’s fifth place finish on today’s stage it moves him up to seventh overall some 2 hours and eighteen minutes off of Ginel. The good part is that now Mark is only 18 minutes off of Schlesser for sixth place and 34 minutes off of Al Attiyah in the BMW for the fifth position. Marks position now to try and get back into the top five overall is very achievable as long as his two teammates do not have any issues that Mark might need to help out with. I see within the next couple of days Mark making his comeback to the top five. I really feel especially when they get to Mali that Mark can catch Schlesser and Al Attiyah. Although Mark’s position is support for Ginel and possibly Carlos he still has to be very much on his game. He still has to drive at 100% and because of that a stage win might still be a small possibility. He can still win a stage and finish physically behind Ginel and Carlos.

Stage 9 is yet another long special at 494km and a perfect stage to allow Mark some time to catch up if all goes well. After tomorrows stage and as they enter Mali the competitors will see less dunes and more hard packed roads with lots of trees, big rocks and lots of places to make big mistakes. Getting through tomorrows stage with minimum issues is going to be really important leading up to the tracks that are ahead in Mali. I think tomorrow you will see less and less big dunes and more "dunettes" (see word of the day).

After tomorrow I still expect yet another shake up in the overall. With Mitsubishi pushing hard to catch VW they will be stressing the vehicles harder then they have in years past. In years past they have controlled the rally at this point. VW is still in the driver’s seat and it is still their race to lose. If Ginel can continue to be consistent which he has been every stage thus far this rally, I see no reason that Ginel will pull out an even bigger lead entering Mali.