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Ryan Arciero Race Analysis
Dakar Rally 2006
Ryan Arciero provides expert insight into the Dakar Rally as the race unfolds. His knowledge and experience sheds light on the Rally and what Mark Miller is doing throughout the stages.
January 2, 2006
Hello to all. I wanted to give the readers of our web site a little bit of first hand knowledge of what is taking place during the rally for Mark and maybe some insight as to what Mark has to do coming into the next stages of the rally.
As you all know Mark has been sending in audio updates after every stage. Keep posted to the web site for new ones after each stage. The audio updates are probably going to get updated a little bit later and later during the day as the rally progress, because the race day starts to become longer and longer, so Mark will not be able to get the updates to us until later in our day or until he reaches the bivwac (pit area).
Tomorrow starts stage 5 for the Dakar and Mark is sitting still in a good position. Stage 5 should be a little bit rougher terrain than what has been seen so far on the rally. Mark is 10 minutes out of the lead and at this point anything is still very much possible. Mark still has to be careful especially on the rough stages not to hurt the Volkswagen, but he still has to be very conscience of where the leaders are and to be able to stay in contact. As long as he stays in contact with the leaders Mark should be in a very good position for the stages in Mauritania.
The downfall to being on a multi-car team is that at some point there are going to be team orders for the other vehicles to become helpers for their teammate who is in the best position to win the rally. Now given if everything still goes as planned for everyone, that will probably not be the case for another couple of stages or so. As long as Mark keeps in contact with the leaders and slowly starts to eat into the leaders time he is going to be I think in a great position. I would rather not be the leader myself at this point but be in a position and within striking distance to take the lead at anytime.
The navigation is going to start to become more and more critical as the stages progress. The opportunity to get lost or miss the road you are supposed to be on is really easy to happen. We saw this happen to Mark on today’s stage, stage 4. Getting lost and trying to retrace were the actual course is, starts to eat up time plenty of time. I am going to try and give some of my input on the knowledge of this race as the stages progress and maybe give some insight to everyone watching as to what Mark is going through or what he may or may not have to do on the upcoming stages. Thank you all for your support of Mark, he called me yesterday and wanted to wish everyone well and thank everyone for the support. Mike our web guy has been copying me on all the emails from the contact part of the web site that you guys have been sending in.
Ryan Arciero
January 4, 2006
Hello again everyone and thanks for checking in with us.
Mark had a fantastic Stage 5 of the Dakar. He did exactly what he should have and kept a nice even pace and it proved to be beneficial at the finish line. Mark kept in contact with the leaders all day long and even had some of the faster segment times of the stage, which improved his overall time to pull within 2 minutes of his teammate Carlos for the overall lead. As we said yesterday as long as Mark kept in contact and took care of his equipment he would be in a good position going into Mauritania to start Stage 6 of the rally.
I think Mark in my opinion is in the best position for the start of Stage 6. Like I said yesterday I would rather be behind the leader at this point but well within striking distance, which is absolutely the case for Mark. Being only two minutes out is very close and anything can happen as you enter the deserts or Mauritania. He still has to be cautious of his equipment, but he still has to be able to run a comfortable pace to stay in contact with Carlos if not take over the lead or get into the top three by the end of tomorrows stage. Even losing a slight gap and I do mean slight at this point would not hurt Mark and his chances to win, but a big mistake or mechanical problems could be disastrous now, case in point Robby Gordon on Stage 4.
Mark is going to be faced with his longest stage of the rally so far 444 km approx. 270 miles, not to mention a long liaison to the start of the special which is 336 km. The good part about the end of tomorrow’s stage is that he has a very short liaison to the bivwac where he can get some well deserved food and rest. Even though the stage is a little bit longer in length than today’s stage I don’t think by the looks of it, that it will be as rough as today’s was. I think they are going to have some very fast trails along with some small dune crossings on the way into Zouerat.
Mark’s continued patience with the pace he has been running will be tested throughout the day’s stage, but knowing Mark and how he has tackled the rally so far, I have every bit of confidence in him to continue a successful run through Mauritania.
Mark and I talked before and during the rally about the pace he should run and I told him to only listen to himself. I told him not to let anyone tell him what pace he should run, but do what he thinks is right. Mark knows the right pace to win and as long as he keeps to that, only good things will happen. At this point he needs to trust himself and Dirk and they will be successful.
Take care everyone and I hope you are enjoying the Dakar and all that we are doing on the web site to keep you best informed on the rally.
Ryan Arciero
January 5, 2006
Although it didn’t show on the stage results for Stage 6, Mark did a fantastic job. As we have heard on the audio updates there were some fast sections of the stage where he had it pinned and on the rougher parts through the camel grass he dropped the pace a bit to save the car and eliminate any mistakes. If any of you have seen or been through camel grass, I can tell you it is a pain in the ass and is pretty rough, especially if you are one of the first cars through it. It can really beat you up, and with only approximately 10” of wheel travel in the Volkswagen it can be a chore sometimes. Mark did exactly what he should of and continues to play the chess game of the Dakar rally with precision.
Stage 7 I think is going to be a pretty difficult one especially for Dirk to make sure he hits all of his marks in the road book. One small error and Mark and Dirk could be going in circles and wasting valuable time. Up to now I think Dirk has been spot one with a few minor errors, but knowing Dirk I think he is well up for the challenge that Stage 7 presents for the navigational difficulties. It looks like they are going to get their fair share of sand dunes tomorrow, which is also going to make the navigation difficult because they are not following any existing roads; they are working on pure navigation to get them across the dunes.
On a side note in last years Dakar, stage 7 Zouerat to Tichit was one that I would like to forget. This was the longest stage last year and the one that we ran out of gas on 50k from the finish. We had terrible sand storms from the time we left the start line to the time I finally got to the finish in Tichit some 32 hours after I started. I truly hope Mark and Dirk have smooth sailing through this stage and get themselves in a perfect position coming into stage 8
Mark had left me a message this afternoon and he sounded extremely positive and excited to start tomorrow’s stage. He said he is ready to pick up the pace and see what happens. I think at this point it is not a bad idea to pick it up a bit. If Mark has been driving the rally at 80 to 85 percent of his max, then picking up the pace to a 90 or 95 percent max just might be what the doctor ordered for Stage 7. It might just be a good time to see what everyone else has. You have to remember as Mark picks up the pace so can everyone else, but it could also work into Mark’s favor. He just has to continue to be mindful of his equipment, and knowing Mark, he will.
The good part is that Volkswagen has yet to set down team orders since everyone on the team is so close and it is still any ones race. Kris Nissen (Team Leader for Volkswagen) is still going to let everyone run their race, which I think is awesome. Time will tell, and at some point in the not to distant future Kris will pull the team orders card. We will have to wait and see as the rally progress through Mauritania. If we are all lucky the Volkswagen Five will stay within minutes of each other and the team orders will have to wait until the rally gets into yet another country.
Until tomorrow, thank all of you again for your continued support for Mark.
Ryan Arciero
January 6, 2006
Well Stage 7 was one that I think Mark and Dirk would like to forget. I didn’t intend for my bad luck last year on this stage to trickle over to Mark, but unfortunately it did. Like I had mentioned on the last post, the navigation was going to be crucial on this stage, and that was exactly the cause of most of today’s problems. After talking with Mark today, he told me that the road book for today’s stage was horrible, which makes Dirk’s job extremely important and even more difficult. After getting lost a couple of times and suffering two rollovers, they finally made it to the finish line in a respectable 14th position for the day’s stage. Not too bad at all considering all the problems and two crashes on the stage.
Today’s stage sounds like by far the hardest so far on the rally, probably just on pure navigation, not necessarily on terrain. There were quite a few dune crossings which are never easy, because they will swallow you up in a second, just ask Mark or Robby after today’s run.
One more stage to go before the all important rest day in Nouakchott, and it is not going to be an easy run into Nouakchott. Tomorrow’s stage will be the second longest of the rally with even still more dunes to cross, which once again plays havoc for Dirk in trying to get Mark though them. Mark is now a little bit over two hours down to the leaders, which in not necessarily good, but at the same time not horrible. Since tomorrow’s stage is so long in length, anything can happen to any of the leaders, and anyone of them can find themselves in the same position Mark and Dirk were in today. At this point I think Mark still needs to step up the pace and force the others to make mistakes and hope to capitalize on them. Mark cannot necessarily take it too easy for fear of falling further behind. He should have a brand new car by tomorrow, or a rebuilt one I should say, so he should be able to pick up the pace without a problem. As long as they can minimize any downtime I think Mark is still somewhat ok on the overall, but he sure did use up all of his mulligans on today’s stage. Mark and Dirk need to continue a fast pace to see if they can eat into some of that two hour deficit, but at the same time continue to watch the equipment. At some point Mark will make a decision to either slow the pace down or pick it up as the stage progress and how he feels he is doing on his equipment and time.
Like I had mentioned earlier, on tomorrows stage anything can still happen, 508k is a long way in the sand and a lot of the competitors can still have plenty of problems. Remember we are only at just about the halfway point of this rally, and a podium finish for Mark is no where out of the question.
Keep your fingers crossed and let’s hope for a full turnaround on Stage 8 of the Dakar.
Ryan Arciero
January 9, 2006
Hello to everyone once again. Sorry for not sending in a race analysis for Stage 9, but I was away from my computer and not able to do so. With that lets get back to talking a little about today’s stage and also what lies ahead for Mark as he enters Mali and Stage 10.
Like we have been talking about throughout this analysis it was only a matter of time before team orders were going to be set, and as most of you have probably already heard via the audio updates on our web site, the order fell in to Mark’s lap for today’s stage. This is definitely a bummer for Mark because I am sure he could have picked up the pace tremendously for today’s stage and had a much better finish than seventh. Mark was assigned to Ginel, so Mark’s purpose in today’s stage was to make sure that Ginel got the finish line, which he did. If Ginel ran into any mechanical problems, Mark would have been the one to sacrifice the parts on his car for Ginel’s and then Mark would have had to wait for the service truck to get his car back up and running again. Thankfully he didn’t have to do this on today’s stage, but by the looks of it that is going to be the role Mark is going to have to take from here on out. There also might be a small chance that since Carlos and Bruno both are behind Mark, they might let Mark run to improve his standings, but only time will tell what Kris Nissen will do.
Now that they have the long stages behind them as well as the majority of the sand dunes, if not all of the sand dunes, the navigating should start to become a little bit easier, and I do say easier very lightly. This race from day 1 to day 15 is incredibly tough everyday with the navigation, but as they leave the sand dunes and the vast deserts of Mauritania behind them they begin to start onto some faster more well defined routs. They will have a 283k stage ahead of them tomorrow from Kiffa to Kayes, which begins their journey into Mali. This stage should be a pretty fast day for everyone as long as they don’t have problems. Mark is probably going to be assigned to either Ginel or Jutta for tomorrow’s stage. What this means is that once again Mark is going to have to stay behind them for the day. He can still run hard and pass some of the vehicles ahead of him, as long as he is not passing Ginel or Jutta. I am sure both of them are going to be running hard since they both need to make up some time on the overall, and hopefully this will help Mark out. Remember the race still isn’t over, they still have almost 1000 miles left of specials to compete in, and there is still a lot of time left for Mark to pick up some more positions for the overall. We also have to remember Mark is in a perfect position to become the first American to finish in the top ten on the Dakar.
Let’s all keep up the good thoughts and encouragement for Mark as he tries to make history for the American’s at this years Dakar. Thanks again for all your continued support for this years efforts and stay tuned as I try and keep you guys updated as best I can with the progress of Mark.
Ryan Arciero
January 10, 2006
Stage 10 & 11- Stage 10 was a good one for Mark, with a fourth place finish on the stage as well as moving up to sixth overall, I would say he had a pretty decent day. He was committed to make sure Ginel and Jutta were able to get to the finish line, so he probably lost a little bit of time on that, but all in all he is looking great for his first top 10 finish in the Dakar. As you have heard in the audio updates, there were some tight sections through trees and brush and he was able to donate some nice carbon fiber mirrors to the people of Mali after trying unsuccessfully to avoid all the trees and brush. Mark was the lucky one though; a lot of the other competitors tore up quite a bit of body work and suspension components while running this stage. Lucky for Mark, or should I say skill, he was able to keep the Touerag in one piece and continue his assault on the Dakar.
Tomorrows stage, stage 11, is going to be a short one 231k or about 140 miles from Kayes to Bamako, which is the capital of Mali They should be able to quickly get through this stage and set out for a long liaison of 424k back to the bivwac in Bamako. Stage 11 will more than likely have faster hard packed roads, weaving in and out of the forest with lots of trees and vegetation. Dirk’s job still is very crucial and navigation problems can still arise, so they both have to be on there toes to avoid any mistakes. These types of stage are what I like to call driver stages, where you are really using a lot of car control to maneuver the cars on the road in and out of the tress and vegetation. An error in driving these types of stages is still very much an issue, one small mistake and you could be looking at the trunk of a tree in your engine compartment, or a corner of your car that is no longer there.
Mark’s role tomorrow will still be a support role once again or what they call a water carrier role for Ginel and Jutta. Mark is going to start tomorrow’s stage in front of both of them, so what he will have to do is start the stage and at some point in the beginning, probably just after the start is pull over and let Jutta by and then follow her for the remainder of the stage. This might sound like horse crap, but you have to remember, this is a team and in order to win this race or place on the podium you need teammates. Because of what happened to Mark on Stage 7 and the fact that he is over 3 hours down to the leader this is his new role within the team. Like I had mentioned in an earlier post the roles could have been just as easily switched and his teammates would have to support him. The team must work together to get to Dakar, to one finish, and two get a win or podium finish.
Let’s hope the rest of the rally is smooth sailing for him and the entire Volkswagen Team. Take care everyone, have a great night and I will talk to you again tomorrow.
Ryan Arciero
January 11, 2006
Greetings to all.
Stage 11 is now in the books and our friend Mark Miller has once again showed us what a tremendous team player and competitor he is. As was told on the audio updates today, Mark started the stage went a couple hundred meters and stopped and waited for Ginel for about eight minutes or so. I tell you what, those eight minutes seem forever when you are in a race just sitting there waiting, but that is what Mark’s role was once again on today’s stage and he performed his job perfectly. Without having any problems Mark stayed behind Ginel for the day and managed to pass back quite a bit of his competitors and pulled off a ninth place finish on the stage.
Ninth doesn’t sound all that good given his great finishes in the previous stages, but you have to remember he gave up at least eight minutes just sitting and waiting for Ginel. I know there is probably a slight bit of frustration, regardless of what Mark says, but he is handling it perfectly and he is doing what is right for the team. Partly because of Mark, Ginel is picking up time on second place overall, and that is huge.
Stage 12 is going to be the first stage held in Guinea. There is still going to be a lot of driving tomorrow, approximately 520 miles worth of liaisons and specials to get into Labe, Guinea and I guarantee it will not all be easy, especially with the Volkswagen team hot on the heels of Mitsubishi. The Volkswagen team really needs to step up the pace tomorrow in order to eat into even more of the lead that Mitsubishi has, maybe a little bit of praying won’t hurt as well.
Tomorrow is also going to be a marathon stage which means that all the competitors and going to have to do without the traditional bivwac and crew to work on their equipment. On a marathon stage, once you have finished the special and last liaison to the bivwac you park your vehicles in parc ferme or a somewhat roped off area, clean up a bit, get something to eat, go to sleep and hope that your car is still in good shape for stage 13. For some of the top teams once their service trucks that are entered in the race arrive they will be able to do some minor quick repairs if necessary before the start of the next day, but most of the time they don’t arrive at the bivwac until really late, especially since there is a long last liaison to the bivwac. The bivwac itself is set up a lot smaller with only tents for the catered food and big tents for some of the teams who previously reserved them to sleep in. The regular hustle and bustle of all the service vehicles and support crew will be without until the end of Friday in Senegal.
Having a marathon stage at this point in the rally just might be beneficial to the Volkswagen team, especially if they can put the pressure on Mitsubishi tomorrow and force them to use up their vehicles or make mistakes. Getting the vehicles fixed between tomorrow and Friday’s stage is going to eat up quite a bit of time, especially without your service crew tomorrow. These next two days with the marathon stage might be Volkswagens last opportunity to inch up the overall.
Unfortunately tomorrow Mark is going to have to start in eighth position, so he is going to have to make his way through some of the other slower competitors that start in front of him. He will still probably have to support Ginel and not pass him but he can run it hard to try and catch up to Ginel. The only downfall to starting eighth tomorrow is the dust. I am sure it is going to be miserable and make it very difficult to pass. As long as Mark doesn’t take any huge chances in the dust, he should have a really good finish on tomorrow’s stage and quite possibly eat into some of Nani Roma’s 40 minutes for fourth place.
After what had happened to Jutta on today’s stage, anything can and will happen on the Dakar. You never know until you get to the Red Lake of Lac Rose in Dakar and you are sitting on the podium accepting your finisher’s medal. At that point you can then take a big deep breath and wonder how the hell you just made it across some of the most harshest and dangerous terrain in the world, with a smile of course.
Ryan Arciero
January 12, 2006
Greetings to all.
Another day crossed off the 2006 Dakar calendar and more importantly another day closer to Dakar and the Lac Rose Finish line. For a brief moment this morning I thought for sure that Mark had picked up yet another position in the overall when I had heard that Peterhansel had mechanical problems, and then as soon as I took my eyes off the tracking system I saw that Peterhansel had crossed the finish line to take the fourth position from Mark by a mere eight minutes. Everyday he is just a little bit closer to taking the next overall position.
The rally is starting to get real interesting, and Mark could not be driving any more perfect that he has. Still fifth overall and finishing the stage in fifth, everything seems to be going great. I realize he might be a little bit higher in the rankings if he was allowed to run hard to make up time and not have to wait for Ginel, but once again, they are a team and they are doing everything they can to win this race for Volkswagen, not just for the driver. You also have to realize if he were running harder it just might be a recipe for disaster as he may be making more mistakes that could put him in Jutta’s position and out of the rally. In these last couple of stages there is a very fine line on how hard you can run versus the risk you take for a big mistake. Big rocks, trees, mud holes, water crossing, the local people, and dust, craps loads of blinding dust are the things you have to keep an eye on, not to mention trying to drive the piss out of the car to make up time. Not so easy, but sometimes when you are on your game it is doable. Ever since Mark’s mishaps on Stage 7 he has pretty much been on his game, and as long as he continues that into the last couple of stages, things just might play into his lap for a better overall position.
Stage 13 is going to take them from Labe to Tambacounda which is in Senegal and one step closer to the finish line in Dakar. Tomorrow’s stage will consist of a 343k special and a 212k liaison into Tambacounda and more importantly back into a regular bivwac were all of the Volkswagen crew will be waiting for the vehicles to give them a much needed rebuild. Tonight the drivers are in the marathon stage so no regular service, and for the guys who have had problems today it is going to be a long night and day tomorrow. Just like I said yesterday the marathon stage just might play into the Volkswagen team’s luck, especially if Alphand and Roma have any of the same issues that Peterhansel had today. You never know until the last day and the finish line.
I think tomorrow is going to be very interesting. Ginel leads the way for the Volkswagen team tomorrow with Saby and Mark behind. My guess or should I say my hopes for tomorrow would be for Bruno to pull over after the start and let Mark go by, tuck in behind and the two of them run hard to the finish. I think that with Peterhansel starting as far back in the field as he is, and Mark hopefully having zero problems, I think he has an excellent chance at taking over the fourth position by the end of tomorrow’s stage. Eight minutes to make up isn’t a lot of time, especially with Peterhansel trying to work his way through traffic and the bad dust. I think the eight minutes will not be an issue for Mark tomorrow, and he will be in the fourth position at the end of stage 13, once again, he has to clean the stage and not have any issues. As long as he keeps doing what he is doing he will be sitting in a great position come tomorrow night. As far as his team orders, I think they are still going to be in affect. Ginel is in a great position to work at being the overall leader and the team cannot jeopardize that, so I think Mark will still have to stay behind Ginel tomorrow. Remember Ginel is only 20 minutes out of the overall lead now; Mark is almost three hours out of the lead. I realize everyone is probably saying, “but what about trying to get Mark onto the podium,” and I agree, but the most important thing for the team right now is a win at this rally, and then trying to secure another podium spot.
There are a lot of dangers on tomorrow’s stage that can put anyone of these drivers back or out of the rally. They are going to be climbing some mountain passes, traversing through more vegetation, rocks, and trees, so the opportunity to make the big mistake is still very possible, especially since the top five are all gunning for each other. Let’s keep our fingers crossed for Mark.
Unfortunately I am going to be out of town for the remainder of the rally, so I am not going to be able to send in my analysis for the remainder of the stages, which I apologize for. Although I will still be following what is going on, I just will not have access to my computer. I will try and send in at least one more after tomorrow’s stage, and I will of course send in one on Monday after the rally is over.
Thank all of you for tuning in and for your support during these past weeks.
Ryan Arciero
January 13, 2006
Greetings to all. This is going to be a little bit shorter analysis than normal, but here we go.
Stage 13 didn’t quite go as planned, although Mark did make it to the finish line, he did encounter some mechanical problems which set him back from taking over the fourth position overall. Today Mark broke a right rear tie rod which holds the rear upright straight. He said it was a little bit of a scary moment when it broke, but him and Dirk were able to get it fixed with a spare that they had on the car and were able to keep moving to the finish. Mark had said that he lost approximately 30 minutes or so trying to get it fixed. It is too bad, because Mark had a really great shot of breaking into fourth. Thankfully the rest of the car stayed together to get him to the finish.
Tonight the Volkswagen crew will be hard at work repairing any damage that was done to anything else on the car from today, as well as probably doing a complete rebuild on all the cars to get ready for the last two stages. The race isn’t over although tomorrow is probably the last chance for the Volkswagen team to eat into any of the lead that Mitsubishi has. The last stage on the beach of Dakar is more a ceremonial stage and is too short in distance to make up any time, so tomorrow is all they can hope for. You never know as well, tomorrow can bring bad luck for the leader. One can only hope for a mechanical failure for theMitsubishi guys. At this point it is pretty evident that Luke Alphand is in a great position to win this race.
Tomorrow’s stage which will take the competitors from Tambacounda to Dakar is going to be 254k of special and 273k of the last liaison into the Le Meridian Hotel in Dakar. The bivwac is located at the hotel and the competitors will be staying in the same hotel for the next couple of days until they leave to go home. This will be a first since the beginning of the rally. Tomorrow’s stage is going to be fast and probably sandy, with still the vegetation and trees to worry about. It is probably going to be somewhat difficult on navigation, so Dirk is going to have to still remain on his toes. There are going to be numerous roads to be on and only one is the right way to go.
Mark strategy for tomorrow should be simple. He needs to protect his fifth place overall ranking, which shouldn’t be too hard and he just needs to maintain. Tomorrow is not going to be an all out assault to try and catch Peterhansel because there is now just too much of a gap to make up on a short and fast stage. He might eat up a couple of minutes, but not 20 or so tomorrow unless Peterhansel has problems. Mark needs to think of not making any mistakes and as long as he is smooth tomorrow there is no way Schlesser is going to catch him on time.
Lets all have great thoughts for Mark on the next two days as the rally comes to a conclusion. He has done such an outstanding job driving this years race and we should all be proud as Americans to have Mark representing us this year, as he is well on his way to the best finish for an American. This is the toughest off-road race in the world by far, and I know just how difficult it is to try and get to the finish line in Dakar. It is one of the sweetest feelings ever to stand up on the podium at the Lac Rose finish line hold up your medal for finishing this incredible event and truly say that you beat the Dakar. I want to be the first to congratulate Mark on a job well done this year.
Stay tuned during the year as Arciero-Miller Racing is going to have exciting news about the direction of our Baja program for the years to come. We will be filling everyone in on the email list as to upcoming news and events, so stay tuned.
Ryan Arciero